Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Twins- Carlos SantanaBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Santana singled to right, Correa scored and Buxton scored.7–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 8Santander singled to left, Urías scored.7–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 8Westburg grounded out to pitcher, Mullins scored, Urías to second.6–0
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball In Play6–0
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball 36–0
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 26–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 16–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 8Henderson hit sacrifice fly to center, Mountcastle scored, Mullins to third.5–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 8Urías singled to left, Holliday scored, Mullins to second, Mountcastle to third.4–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 24–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 7Cowser homered to right (399 feet).3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2O'Hearn homered to right (399 feet), Rutschman scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 57%
- ML BAL +125 / MIN -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.8%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -135
- BAL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.4 – 4.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +1 | BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +20 Elo | MIN 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 4th of 3044–34 | Road vs home | 43–3511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–75 | 75–83 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 54–60 | 43–63 |
| Underdog | 28–15 | 32–20 |
| Overs–unders | 88–67–2 | 83–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 7–2 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.