Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- James McCannBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Twins- Carlos SantanaBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kjerstad homered to center (414 feet).6–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 7Westburg singled to left, Mullins scored and O'Hearn scored, Holliday to third.5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 5McCann homered to left (381 feet), O'Hearn scored and Mullins scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Keirsey Jr. homered to right (368 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Santana homered to right center (393 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML BAL +105 / MIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +1 | BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +10 Elo | BAL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3046–34 | Road vs home | 43–3715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–75 | 75–85 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 54–60 | 43–65 |
| Underdog | 30–15 | 32–20 |
| Overs–unders | 90–67–2 | 85–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 9–2 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.