Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Joey BartBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Verdugo singled to right, Domínguez scored and Wells scored, Berti to third.4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 5Bart doubled to left, Reynolds scored, Cruz to third.4–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 34–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 3Stanton grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Torres scored, Grisham out at second.3–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Grisham singled to right, Trevino scored, Torres to third.3–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Triolo hit sacrifice fly to center, Bart scored, Palacios to third.3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Palacios doubled to right, N. Gonzales scored and Cruz scored, Bart to third.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 1Grisham homered to right center (391 feet), Torres scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML PIT +150 / NYY -180
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 62.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -161
- PIT +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.2 – 4.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +8 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +85 Elo | NYY 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 65.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 20th of 3037–43 | Road vs home | 43–3714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–79 | 82–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–42 | 53–70 |
| Underdog | 56–37 | 29–5 |
| Overs–unders | 78–80 | 87–69–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–2 NYY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.