Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cade SmithPitching1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramírez homered to right (365 feet).3–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 7Judge homered to center (414 feet), Torres scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 6Rizzo doubled to right, Volpe scored on fielding error by right fielder Brennan.2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 5Brennan grounded into fielder's choice to first, Manzardo scored, Thomas out at second, Ramírez to third.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5J. Naylor hit sacrifice fly to right, Kwan scored, Manzardo to third.1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Judge hit sacrifice fly to center, Rizzo scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Verdugo doubled to left, Volpe scored, Rizzo to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Torres scored on error, Judge safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Rocchio, Soto safe at second on error.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML CLE +145 / NYY -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -156
- CLE +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 2.8 – 3.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +5 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +32 Elo | NYY 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 11th of 3042–39 | Road vs home | 44–3711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–81 | 85–78 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 45–53 | 56–73 |
| Underdog | 40–28 | 29–5 |
| Overs–unders | 77–87–2 | 89–73–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–9 NYY in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.