Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting3-4
- Alex CobbPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Brant HurterPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Torkelson doubled to left, Keith scored.0–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3Vierling hit sacrifice fly to left, Rogers scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Greene singled to center, Meadows scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML CLE -115 / DET -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 46.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 3.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +9 | CLE: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +22 Elo | DET 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3042–39 | Road vs home | 42–3818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–78 | 90–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 44–52 | 28–41 |
| Underdog | 40–26 | 62–34 |
| Overs–unders | 75–85–2 | 81–84 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 12–16 DET in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 28.
- Oct 7DET 3 @ CLE 0PlayoffsPicked DET 53%Hit
- Oct 5DET 0 @ CLE 7PlayoffsPicked CLE 54%Hit
- Jul 30CLE 5 @ DET 0Picked CLE 55%Hit
- Jul 29CLE 8 @ DET 4Picked CLE 59%Hit
- Jul 25DET 3 @ CLE 0Picked CLE 58%Miss
- Jul 24DET 1 @ CLE 2Picked CLE 57%Hit
- Jul 23DET 4 @ CLE 5Picked CLE 57%Hit
- Jul 22DET 8 @ CLE 2Picked DET 55%Hit