Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Torkelson walked, Vierling scored, Jung to second, Pérez to third.9–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 49–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking9–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking9–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 39–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 29–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 7Amaya singled to left, Ramos scored, Fletcher to second.9–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 29–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging9–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 19–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 7Lee grounded into fielder's choice to third, Sosa scored, Ramos safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Vierling.8–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Ramos singled to right, DeLoach scored and Robert Jr. scored, Sosa to third.7–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 5Carpenter homered to right center (425 feet), Torkelson scored, Sweeney scored and Meadows scored.5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 3Sosa homered to left center (405 feet), Vargas scored and DeLoach scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 2Fletcher hit sacrifice fly to center, Ramos scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Lee singled to center, Sosa scored, Ramos to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- DET 68%
- ML CHW +200 / DET -240
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- DET: Elo 65.7%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -212
- CHW +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.9 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1380 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −28 | CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Kenta Maeda: team allows 1.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +113 Elo | DET 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 66.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 30th of 3017–63 | Road vs home | 42–3718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–87 | 87–73 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 27–40 |
| Underdog | 67–83 | 60–33 |
| Overs–unders | 69–90–1 | 79–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–10 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 7–18 DET in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 25.