Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jack LopezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Benintendi singled to left, Sosa scored, Robert Jr. to second.2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Ramos scored on error, Robert Jr. safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Lopez, Sosa safe at third on error.2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Ramos doubled to center, DeLoach scored.2–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 8Lopez homered to left center (379 feet).2–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 7Wagaman doubled to right, Pillar scored.1–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 50%
- ML LAA -110 / CHW -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- CHW: Elo 42.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CHW -100
- LAA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 4.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1371 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +8 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +54 Elo | LAA 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 26th of 3031–47 | Road vs home | 20–5830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–79 | 70–85 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–26 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 69–53 | 64–82 |
| Overs–unders | 75–80 | 69–85–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 6–4 CHW in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.