Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Angels- Eric WagamanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.1 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Campero singled to left, Leblanc scored, Adams to third.8–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–4
- 7Adams reached on infield single to second, Kavadas scored, Leblanc to third.8–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 28–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 7Benintendi homered to right center (392 feet).8–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 28–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 5Leblanc homered to left center (397 feet).7–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 27–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 17–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 3Sosa homered to left (402 feet).7–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 2Wagaman homered to center (398 feet).6–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 2Vaughn tripled to right, Robert Jr. scored.6–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 2Benintendi grounded out to second, DeLoach scored, Robert Jr. to second.5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Robert Jr. reached on infield single to first, Amaya scored on throwing error by first baseman Schanuel, DeLoach safe at third on error.4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 62%
- ML CHW +155 / LAA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- LAA: Elo 60.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LAA -166
- CHW +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.2 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1373 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −10 | CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +71 Elo | LAA 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 63.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 30th of 3015–57 | Road vs home | 30–4528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–83 | 74–74 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 6–24 |
| Underdog | 60–80 | 68–50 |
| Overs–unders | 68–80–1 | 71–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 3–4 LAA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.