Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Angels- Mickey MoniakBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SuarezPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alvarez homered to center (397 feet).5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 4Moniak homered to right center (393 feet).4–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 14–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 3Schanuel singled to left, Lopez scored on error, Schanuel safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Dubón.4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 3Neto grounded out to second, Adams scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Bregman homered to left (378 feet), Tucker scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to right, Meyers scored, Dubón to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Altuve walked, Caratini scored, Dubón to second, Meyers to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 41–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 66%
- ML HOU -215 / LAA +180
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 58.3%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -191
- LAA +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.0 – 3.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +4 | HOU: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Sam Aldegheri: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +58 Elo | HOU 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.827th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 18th of 3034–36 | Road vs home | 30–4228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–71 | 74–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 45–59 | 6–24 |
| Underdog | 27–12 | 68–47 |
| Overs–unders | 62–78–3 | 70–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 12–7 LAA in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.