Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jason HeywardBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Caden DanaPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Leblanc singled to right, Stefanic scored and Adams scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Campero fouled out to first, O'Hoppe scored, Adams to second, Stefanic to third.6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 8Ward homered to left center (420 feet).6–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 8Meyers singled to right, Peña scored, Heyward to second.6–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 4Dubón singled to left, Heyward scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 4Peña scored, Heyward to second on passed ball by O'Hoppe.4–0
- 4Peña scored, Heyward to second on passed ball by O'Hoppe.4–0
- 4Heyward singled to right, Caratini scored, Peña to third.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Peña singled to center, Tucker scored, Caratini to third.2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Heyward homered to right center (410 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 64%
- ML HOU -200 / LAA +165
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.3%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -177
- LAA +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.4 – 4.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +4 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Caden Dana: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +80 Elo | HOU 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 13th of 3036–36 | Road vs home | 30–4428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–71 | 74–73 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 47–59 | 6–24 |
| Underdog | 27–12 | 68–49 |
| Overs–unders | 62–80–3 | 70–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 14–7 LAA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.