Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tucker homered to center (403 feet).5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8O'Hoppe singled to center, Ward scored, Teodosio to third, Schanuel thrown out at home.4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Caratini singled to left, Peña scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 34–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Alvarez homered to right (432 feet), Altuve scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Wagaman doubled to left, O'Hoppe scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Schanuel singled to left, Ward scored, Neto to second.1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Altuve scored on Anderson wild pitch.1–0
- 1Altuve scored on Anderson wild pitch.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 60%
- ML HOU -165 / LAA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 58.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.7 – 3.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | 0 | HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +60 Elo | HOU 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 16th of 3035–36 | Road vs home | 30–4328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–71 | 74–72 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 46–59 | 6–24 |
| Underdog | 27–12 | 68–48 |
| Overs–unders | 62–79–3 | 70–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 13–7 LAA in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.