Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Astros- Jon SingletonBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Singleton doubled to center, Alvarez scored and Diaz scored, Caratini to third.1–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Caratini singled to center, Diaz scored, Peña to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Ward homered to left center (416 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 72%
- ML LAA +240 / HOU -300
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 67.5%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -255
- LAA +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 2.7 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | −10 | LAA: Jose Suarez: team allows 1.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · HOU: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +127 Elo | HOU 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 68.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 25th of 3030–44 | Road vs home | 42–328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–76 | 76–73 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–26 | 48–59 |
| Underdog | 68–50 | 28–14 |
| Overs–unders | 72–79 | 63–83–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 7–15 HOU in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.