Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jared ShusterPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Angels- Gustavo CamperoBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 13Adams reached on infield single to second, Wagaman scored.3–4
- 13Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 13Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 11Wagaman singled to center, Moniak scored.3–3
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 11Benintendi singled to right, Amaya scored.3–2
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Campero singled to left, Adams scored.2–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 10Vargas hit sacrifice fly to center, Lee scored.2–1
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 8Ward singled to left, Neto scored.1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Vaughn homered to left center (392 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 57%
- ML CHW +125 / LAA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- LAA: Elo 64.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- LAA -135
- CHW +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.9 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1374 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +5 | CHW: Jared Shuster: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +100 Elo | LAA 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 30th of 3016–58 | Road vs home | 31–4628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–84 | 75–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 7–25 |
| Underdog | 61–81 | 68–50 |
| Overs–unders | 69–81–1 | 72–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–5 LAA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.