Houston Astros at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Tucker singled to left, Kessinger scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Tatis Jr. scored on Hader wild pitch.3–3
- 8Tatis Jr. scored on Hader wild pitch.3–3
- 8Bregman walked, Alvarez scored on Adam wild pitch, Tucker to third on wild pitch by Adam.3–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 43–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 33–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 6Machado homered to left center (405 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Peña grounded out to second, Bregman scored, Singleton to third.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Singleton doubled to left, Tucker scored, Bregman to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 52%
- ML HOU +100 / SD -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- SD: Elo 52.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.7 – 3.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +5 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +18 Elo | SD 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 13th of 3037–37 | Road vs home | 41–3415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–72 | 78–72 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 48–59 | 37–54 |
| Underdog | 27–13 | 40–18 |
| Overs–unders | 63–81–3 | 82–67–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–2 SD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.