Houston Astros at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jason HeywardBatting1-3
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching8.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Solano homered to left center (368 feet).0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 8Machado homered to left (367 feet).0–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 8Tatis Jr. homered to left center (397 feet).0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Machado homered to left center (396 feet).0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 51%
- ML HOU -105 / SD -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- SD: Elo 49.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.2 – 3.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | +2 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 1.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +2 Elo | HOU 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 13th of 3038–37 | Road vs home | 41–3515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–72 | 78–73 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 48–59 | 37–55 |
| Underdog | 28–13 | 40–18 |
| Overs–unders | 63–82–3 | 82–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–2 SD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.