Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting3-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caratini singled to center, Bregman scored on error, Diaz to second, Diaz safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Moniak.9–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–8
- 9Diaz singled to center, Tucker scored, Bregman to third.9–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 29–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging9–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–7
- 9Neto doubled to left, Pillar scored, Ward scored and Schanuel scored.9–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–6
- 9Ward walked, O'Hoppe scored, Schanuel to second, Pillar to third.6–6
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 46–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking6–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 36–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 8Whitcomb singled to center, Diaz scored, Peña to second.5–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–6
- 8Diaz doubled to right, Bregman scored.5–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Neto homered to left center (395 feet).5–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 7Schanuel hit sacrifice fly to center, O'Hoppe scored, Campero to second.4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7Moniak scored on a balk, O'Hoppe to second on a balk.3–4
- 7Moniak scored on a balk, O'Hoppe to second on a balk.3–4
- 6Neto homered to left (372 feet), Lopez scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 32–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 70%
- ML LAA +225 / HOU -275
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 66.3%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -238
- LAA +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 2.8 – 4.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −3 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +118 Elo | HOU 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 70.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 69.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 3030–47 | Road vs home | 45–325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–79 | 79–73 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 7–26 | 51–59 |
| Underdog | 68–53 | 28–14 |
| Overs–unders | 74–80 | 65–84–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 7–18 HOU in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 25.