Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carson FulmerPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schanuel grounded into fielder's choice to second, Campero scored, Ward out at second, Lopez to third.4–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–10
- 9Lopez singled to center, O'Hoppe scored, Campero to second.3–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–10
- 7Tucker homered to right (401 feet).2–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–10
- 7Alvarez homered to center (403 feet).2–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 22–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 12–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–9
- 4Dubón singled to center, Peña scored, Meyers to second, Caratini to third.2–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–8
- 4O'Hoppe homered to center (419 feet).2–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 3Alvarez singled to center, Altuve scored on fielding error by center fielder Moniak.1–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 3Caratini homered to left (342 feet), Diaz scored and Peña scored.1–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 2Alvarez grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Meyers scored, Altuve out at second, Dubón to third.1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Altuve singled to center, Caratini scored, Dubón to second, Meyers to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2O'Hoppe doubled to left, Moniak scored on throwing error by left fielder Dubón.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 64%
- ML LAA +170 / HOU -205
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 68.3%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- HOU -181
- LAA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +3 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +133 Elo | HOU 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 66.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 27th of 3030–46 | Road vs home | 44–325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–78 | 78–73 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–26 | 50–59 |
| Underdog | 68–52 | 28–14 |
| Overs–unders | 73–80 | 64–84–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 7–17 HOU in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 24.