Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Kevin PillarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Roansy ContrerasPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pillar homered to left (365 feet).7–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–9
- 6Tucker homered to right center (393 feet).6–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–9
- 5Thaiss singled to center, Schanuel scored and Wagaman scored.6–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–8
- 5Wagaman doubled to center, Neto scored, Schanuel to third.4–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–8
- 4Diaz singled to center, Tucker scored, Bregman to second.3–8
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–8
- 4Bregman singled to center, Alvarez scored, Tucker to third.3–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 4Lopez reached on infield single to shortstop, Wagaman scored, Campero to second, Thaiss to third.3–6
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–6
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 4Wagaman singled to right, Pillar scored.2–6
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 3Meyers homered to left (350 feet), Diaz scored and Peña scored.1–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 69%
- ML LAA +210 / HOU -255
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 64.1%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -223
- LAA +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 2.9 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −15 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +100 Elo | HOU 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 66.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 25th of 3030–45 | Road vs home | 43–327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–77 | 77–73 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–26 | 49–59 |
| Underdog | 68–51 | 28–14 |
| Overs–unders | 72–80 | 63–84–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 7–16 HOU in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 23.