Chicago White Sox at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Padres- Jurickson ProfarBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tatis Jr. homered to left center (389 feet).2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 8Profar hit sacrifice fly to right, Lockridge scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 12–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 8Arraez doubled to left, Wade scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Vargas homered to left center (404 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 32–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Profar homered to left (381 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Lee homered to left (371 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- SD 75%
- ML CHW +280 / SD -350
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- SD: Elo 73.1%, market 74.7%
- Fair odds
- SD -296
- CHW +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.1 – 5.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1372 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −6 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +173 Elo | SD 73.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 74.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 74.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 74.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 30th of 3016–61 | Road vs home | 44–3512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–85 | 80–74 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 39–56 |
| Underdog | 63–82 | 40–18 |
| Overs–unders | 69–84–1 | 82–71–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 0–5 SD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.