Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Jose SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Korey LeeBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Benintendi singled to left, Vargas scored.3–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 8Stefanic reached on bunt single to pitcher, Wagaman scored, Campero to second, Thaiss to third.3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4Sosa homered to left (354 feet).2–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Ward singled to center, Campero scored and Thaiss scored, Lopez to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Lee homered to left (371 feet), Sosa scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 52%
- ML LAA -120 / CHW +100
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- LAA: Elo 55.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -109
- CHW +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.8 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1372 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −4 | LAA: Jose Suarez: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +40 Elo | LAA 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −2.030th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 27th of 3031–48 | Road vs home | 21–5830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–79 | 70–86 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–26 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 70–53 | 64–82 |
| Overs–unders | 75–81 | 69–86–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 6–5 CHW in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.