Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Zach DeLoachBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Brant HurterPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Vierling scored on Ellard wild pitch, Greene to third on wild pitch by Ellard.1–4
- 7Vierling scored on Ellard wild pitch, Greene to third on wild pitch by Ellard.1–4
- 7Greene doubled to center, Ibáñez scored, Vierling to third.1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6DeLoach homered to right (401 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Vierling hit sacrifice fly to left, Meadows scored, Ibáñez to third.0–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 5Rogers scored, Ibáñez to second on passed ball by Lee, Meadows to third on passed ball by Lee.0–2
- 5Rogers scored, Ibáñez to second on passed ball by Lee, Meadows to third on passed ball by Lee.0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- DET 65%
- ML CHW +175 / DET -210
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- DET: Elo 69.4%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -186
- CHW +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.1 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1377 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +4 | CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Brenan Hanifee: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +142 Elo | DET 69.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 30th of 3016–62 | Road vs home | 41–3618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–86 | 86–72 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 26–39 |
| Underdog | 66–82 | 60–33 |
| Overs–unders | 69–88–1 | 79–79 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–17 DET in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 23.