Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Dingler singled to center, Torkelson scored.1–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 8Torkelson doubled to left, McKinstry scored.1–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Torkelson homered to left (415 feet), Pérez scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Greene singled to right, Meadows scored, Vierling to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Caminero homered to left center (422 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pérez singled to right, Greene scored, Pérez to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Meadows homered to right (394 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML TB +100 / DET -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- DET: Elo 52.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.2 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +6 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +20 Elo | DET 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 19th of 3036–40 | Road vs home | 39–3619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–82 | 85–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–48 | 25–38 |
| Underdog | 49–34 | 60–33 |
| Overs–unders | 70–86 | 79–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–4 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.