Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BazPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Kirk scored, Clement to third.3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8B. Lowe homered to right center (416 feet).2–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Morel hit sacrifice fly to left, Siri scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Clement singled to left, Heineman scored, Lukes to second.2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 6Aranda homered to right center (416 feet), B. Lowe scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Jimenez hit sacrifice fly to center, Clement scored, Barger to second, Guerrero Jr. to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML TOR +110 / TB -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- TB: Elo 55.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.6 – 3.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +13 | TOR: Ryan Burr: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +35 Elo | TB 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3035–45 | Road vs home | 41–3920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–76 | 73–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–42 | 25–47 |
| Underdog | 50–34 | 48–34 |
| Overs–unders | 81–72–1 | 70–84 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 10–15 TB in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 25.