Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8García walked, Semien scored, Langford to second, Smith to third.8–13
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 48–13
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking8–13
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 38–13
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 28–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–13
- 8Taveras homered to right center (394 feet), Heim scored.8–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–12
- 8Bichette reached on infield single to pitcher, Schneider scored, Jimenez to second.8–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–10
- 7Langford homered to right (364 feet).7–10
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 37–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–10
- 6Heim singled to right, García scored and Lowe scored, Jung to third.7–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–9
- 5Schneider homered to left center (409 feet), Lukes scored.7–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 5Lukes singled to left, Horwitz scored.5–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–7
- 5Clement grounded into double play, second to first, Guerrero Jr. scored, Kirk out at second, Horwitz to third.4–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 4Lowe singled to center, Langford scored, García to third.3–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 4García singled to right, Foscue scored and Semien scored, Langford to third.3–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 55%
- ML TOR +115 / TEX -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.5 – 4.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | 0 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +12 Elo | TEX 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 20th of 3034–41 | Road vs home | 41–3414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–74 | 62–88 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–42 | 28–57 |
| Underdog | 47–32 | 34–31 |
| Overs–unders | 80–68–1 | 72–77–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–6 TEX in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.