Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting3-5
- Yariel RodriguezPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kirk tripled to center, Horwitz scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Horwitz reached on infield single to pitcher, Lukes scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 3Aranda homered to center (414 feet), Díaz scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Rortvedt singled to left, Aranda scored, Morel to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML TOR +125 / TB -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- TB: Elo 52.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -135
- TOR +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.4 – 4.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −11 | TOR: Yariel Rodriguez: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +19 Elo | TB 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 21st of 3035–44 | Road vs home | 40–3921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–76 | 73–80 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–42 | 25–46 |
| Underdog | 49–34 | 48–34 |
| Overs–unders | 81–71–1 | 70–83 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 10–14 TB in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.