Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting1-4
- Kumar RockerPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Guerrero Jr. homered to center (441 feet).4–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 24–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 7Guerrero Jr. homered to left (422 feet).3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Guerrero Jr. scored on error, Jimenez safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Duran, Jimenez safe at second on error, Horwitz safe at third on error.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Lukes hit sacrifice fly to left, Barger scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 55%
- ML TOR +115 / TEX -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 50.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.5 – 4.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −2 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +2 Elo | TEX 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3034–43 | Road vs home | 43–3413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–76 | 64–88 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–42 | 30–57 |
| Underdog | 47–34 | 34–31 |
| Overs–unders | 81–69–1 | 73–78–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–8 TEX in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.