Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Malloy hit sacrifice fly to center, Vierling scored, Keith to second.3–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 8Keith singled to center, Greene scored, Vierling to third.3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Carpenter singled to right, Keith scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Keith tripled to right, Vierling scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 5Walls scored on Mize wild pitch.3–0
- 5Walls scored on Mize wild pitch.3–0
- 3B. Lowe singled to right, Rortvedt scored and Walls scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 61%
- ML TB +145 / DET -175
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- DET: Elo 54.6%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -156
- TB +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.3 – 4.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −6 | TB: Tyler Alexander: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +32 Elo | DET 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 20th of 3036–41 | Road vs home | 40–3618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–83 | 86–71 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–48 | 26–38 |
| Underdog | 49–35 | 60–33 |
| Overs–unders | 70–87 | 79–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–5 DET in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.