Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting1-3
- Jackson JobePitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Benintendi homered to right center (365 feet), DeLoach scored.4–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Vaughn singled to left, Benintendi scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Ramos homered to left (371 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- DET 66%
- ML CHW +180 / DET -215
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- DET: Elo 71.9%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -191
- CHW +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.0 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1376 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +16 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · DET: Beau Brieske: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +163 Elo | DET 71.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 69.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 30th of 3016–63 | Road vs home | 42–3616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–87 | 87–72 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 27–39 |
| Underdog | 66–83 | 60–33 |
| Overs–unders | 69–89–1 | 79–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–18 DET in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 24.