Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-4
- Jakob JunisPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Eli MorganPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramírez homered to right (417 feet), Kwan scored and Martínez scored.2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 8Espinal singled to center, Fraley scored on fielding error by center fielder Thomas.2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7De La Cruz reached on infield single to second, Friedl scored on throwing error by second baseman Giménez.1–2
- 7De La Cruz reached on infield single to shortstop, Friedl to home on throwing error by second baseman Giménez.1–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4J. Naylor singled to left, Ramírez scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Kwan homered to right (366 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 58%
- ML CIN +130 / CLE -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -140
- CIN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.4 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −9 | CIN: Jakob Junis: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CLE: Andrew Walters (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +28 Elo | CLE 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 18th of 3037–40 | Road vs home | 49–283rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 88–70 | 82–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–40 | 42–50 |
| Underdog | 56–30 | 40–25 |
| Overs–unders | 75–82–1 | 74–81–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 3–4 CLE in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.