Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Carson SpiersPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Lane ThomasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Thomas grounded out to shortstop, Ramírez scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 7J. Naylor hit sacrifice fly to center, Manzardo scored, Ramírez to third.1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 5J. Naylor doubled to right, Ramírez scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Steer singled to center, Stephenson scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 1Thomas homered to left (370 feet), J. Naylor scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Manzardo homered to right (366 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 63%
- ML CIN +160 / CLE -190
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 59.5%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -170
- CIN +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.7 – 4.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | +9 | CIN: Carson Spiers: team allows 1.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +67 Elo | CLE 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 64.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 15th of 3037–39 | Road vs home | 48–283rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 88–69 | 81–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 32–40 | 41–50 |
| Underdog | 56–29 | 40–25 |
| Overs–unders | 75–81–1 | 74–80–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 3–3 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.