Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Parker MeadowsBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brenan HanifeePitching1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Astros- Mauricio DubonBatting2-3
- Hunter BrownPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ibáñez doubled to left, Torkelson scored, Vierling scored and Keith scored, Ibáñez to third.5–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 15–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 8Carpenter scored on Pressly wild pitch, Vierling to second on wild pitch by Pressly.2–2
- 8Carpenter scored on Pressly wild pitch, Vierling to second on wild pitch by Pressly.2–2
- 7Altuve hit sacrifice fly to right, Peña scored, Dubón to third.1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Singleton grounded into fielder's choice to first, Caratini scored on error, Dubón to second, Peña to third.1–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6Meadows homered to right (358 feet).1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 62%
- ML DET +150 / HOU -180
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 58.2%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -161
- DET +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.2 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +1 | DET: Tyler Holton: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +57 Elo | HOU 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 7th of 3043–38 | Road vs home | 46–357th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 88–74 | 81–78 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–41 | 51–63 |
| Underdog | 61–33 | 30–15 |
| Overs–unders | 80–82 | 68–88–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–7 HOU in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.
- Oct 1DET 3 @ HOU 1PlayoffsPicked HOU 57%Miss
- Jun 16DET 1 @ HOU 4Picked HOU 60%Hit
- Jun 15DET 13 @ HOU 5Picked HOU 52%Miss
- Jun 14DET 0 @ HOU 4Picked HOU 52%Hit
- May 12HOU 9 @ DET 3Picked DET 52%Miss
- May 11HOU 2 @ DET 8Picked DET 59%Hit
- May 10HOU 5 @ DET 2Picked HOU 56%Hit
- Aug 27HOU 17 @ DET 4Picked HOU 51%Hit