Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Heyward homered to right center (397 feet), Caratini scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 4Tucker homered to right (336 feet).3–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 3Polanco singled to left, Raleigh scored, Arozarena to third.3–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Arozarena doubled to right, Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Polanco homered to left (377 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Bregman homered to center (424 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML SEA +105 / HOU -125
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.1 – 3.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +18 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +52 Elo | HOU 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3035–44 | Road vs home | 45–347th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–90 | 79–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 39–68 | 51–61 |
| Underdog | 25–22 | 28–14 |
| Overs–unders | 74–78–2 | 66–85–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 16–8 HOU in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 24.