Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Semien singled to left, Taveras scored.5–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 7Taveras homered to right (391 feet).5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 6Langford homered to left center (396 feet), Semien scored and Smith scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Smith singled to center, Taveras scored, Semien to second.5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 6Robles scored on pickoff error by shortstop Smith, Robles to third on pickoff error by second baseman Semien.4–0
- 6Robles scored on throwing error by shortstop Smith, Robles to third on pickoff error by second baseman Semien.4–0
- 6Robles scored on throwing error by shortstop Smith, Robles to third on pickoff error by second baseman Semien.4–0
- 6Robles scored on throwing error by shortstop Smith, Robles to third on pickoff error by second baseman Semien.5–0
- 6Robles singled to left, Polanco scored and Moore scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Raleigh homered to left (402 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Moore singled to left, Turner scored, Crawford to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML SEA -145 / TEX +120
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -130
- TEX +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.0 – 3.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −1 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +18 Elo | SEA 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3034–43 | Road vs home | 43–3716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–89 | 64–91 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 39–67 | 30–60 |
| Underdog | 24–22 | 34–31 |
| Overs–unders | 73–77–2 | 75–79–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 14–11 TEX in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 25.