Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting4-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rodríguez singled to left, Crawford scored and Moore scored.8–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 28–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–4
- 9Robles scored on Pennington wild pitch.6–4
- 9Robles scored on Pennington wild pitch.6–4
- 9Robles scored on Pennington wild pitch.6–4
- 6Jankowski walked, Duran scored, Kelly to second, Taveras to third.5–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 45–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 35–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 6Duran singled to center, Langford scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 6Arozarena singled to left, Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to second.5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Raleigh singled to right, Rojas scored, Rodríguez to third.4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 6Rodríguez singled to right, Moore scored, Rojas to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 3Smith homered to right (358 feet), Jankowski scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML SEA -120 / TEX +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 4.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −14 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +21 Elo | SEA 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3033–43 | Road vs home | 43–3615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–89 | 64–90 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 39–67 | 30–59 |
| Underdog | 23–22 | 34–31 |
| Overs–unders | 72–77–2 | 74–79–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 13–11 TEX in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 24.