Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting3-4
- Jack LeiterPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Robles hit sacrifice fly to right, Moore scored.8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Rojas hit sacrifice fly to center, Turner scored, Moore to third.7–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 7Rodríguez homered to right (355 feet), Robles scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 5Rodríguez homered to left (398 feet), Crawford scored and Robles scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 4Lowe singled to center, Smith scored and García scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Rojas homered to right center (390 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 51%
- ML SEA -105 / TEX -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.7 – 3.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +18 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +12 Elo | TEX 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3032–43 | Road vs home | 43–3514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–89 | 64–89 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 39–67 | 30–58 |
| Underdog | 22–22 | 34–31 |
| Overs–unders | 71–77–2 | 73–79–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 12–11 TEX in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 23.