Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Astros- Jason HeywardBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arozarena hit a ground rule double, Rodríguez scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Rodríguez hit a ground rule double, Robles scored.5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 8Heyward homered to right center (363 feet).4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 8Polanco doubled to left, Arozarena scored, Raley to third.4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Turner hit sacrifice fly to center, Raleigh scored, Arozarena to third.3–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 7Rodríguez singled to center, Turner scored, Crawford to third, Moore thrown out at third.2–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Raleigh singled to right, Robles scored, Rodríguez to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML SEA +110 / HOU -130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.6 – 3.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +6 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +36 Elo | HOU 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3034–44 | Road vs home | 45–335th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–90 | 79–74 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 39–68 | 51–60 |
| Underdog | 24–22 | 28–14 |
| Overs–unders | 74–77–2 | 66–84–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 15–8 HOU in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 23.