Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Zach DezenzoBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to left, Brennan scored.4–3
- 3Pitch 9 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 34–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 24–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 2Caratini scored on error and Kessinger scored, Dezenzo safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Rocchio, Dezenzo safe at second on error, Singleton safe at third on error.4–2
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 34–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 2Singleton walked, Meyers scored, Caratini to second, Kessinger to third.2–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 42–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 1Ramírez homered to right (390 feet), Brennan scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Dezenzo singled to left, Tucker scored, Caratini to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 58%
- ML HOU +130 / CLE -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -140
- HOU +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.4 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +7 | HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +19 Elo | CLE 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 12th of 3039–38 | Road vs home | 50–293rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–77 | 83–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 51–62 | 43–51 |
| Underdog | 29–15 | 40–25 |
| Overs–unders | 68–86–3 | 74–83–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 7–3 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.