Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Astros- Victor CaratiniBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rodríguez homered to left center (416 feet), Robles scored.8–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 38–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 28–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 9Robles doubled to center, Moore scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 7Robles scored on error, Arozarena safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Whitcomb, Rodríguez to second.5–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 35–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 7Robles grounded into fielder's choice to third, Crawford scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 7Garver homered to left center (373 feet).3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Turner singled to left, Moore scored and Robles scored, Raleigh to third.2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Caratini singled to center, Singleton scored on error, Caratini safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Rodríguez.0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML SEA -155 / HOU +130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 45.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -140
- HOU +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 3.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −6 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +30 Elo | HOU 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3035–45 | Road vs home | 46–346th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–90 | 79–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 39–68 | 51–62 |
| Underdog | 26–22 | 28–14 |
| Overs–unders | 75–78–2 | 67–85–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 16–9 HOU in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 25.