Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Zach DezenzoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Guardians- David FryBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Martínez grounded out to second, Thomas scored, Fry to third.5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 9Fry doubled to left, J. Naylor scored, Thomas to third.5–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Dezenzo homered to center (446 feet).5–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Caratini homered to right (350 feet).4–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Tucker singled to right, Altuve scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Kessinger scored on Cantillo wild pitch, Altuve to third on wild pitch by Cantillo.2–0
- 4Kessinger scored on Cantillo wild pitch, Altuve to third on wild pitch by Cantillo.2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 33–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Bregman hit sacrifice fly to right, Altuve scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML HOU -105 / CLE -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 49.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +3 Elo | HOU 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3038–38 | Road vs home | 50–283rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–77 | 83–75 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 51–62 | 43–50 |
| Underdog | 28–15 | 40–25 |
| Overs–unders | 68–85–3 | 74–82–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–3 CLE in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.