Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4
- Framber ValdezPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Diaz singled to right, Dezenzo scored, Bregman to second.3–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Vierling singled to center, Rogers scored, Sweeney to second.3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Sweeney singled to center, Meadows scored, Rogers to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Rogers singled to center, Pérez scored, Meadows to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML DET +120 / HOU -145
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -130
- DET +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +17 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +55 Elo | HOU 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 7th of 3043–38 | Road vs home | 46–357th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–74 | 81–77 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–41 | 51–62 |
| Underdog | 60–33 | 30–15 |
| Overs–unders | 80–81 | 68–87–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–7 HOU in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.