Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting1-4
- Matthew BoydPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carpenter homered to right (423 feet), Rogers scored and Sweeney scored.3–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML DET -125 / CLE +105
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- DET: Elo 48.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 2.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | 0 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +10 Elo | CLE 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 7th of 3043–38 | Road vs home | 50–303rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 89–75 | 84–77 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–41 | 44–52 |
| Underdog | 62–34 | 40–25 |
| Overs–unders | 81–83 | 75–84–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 15–12 CLE in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 27.