Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Lane ThomasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rocchio singled to center, Giménez scored.3–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 7Thomas reached on infield single to second, Kwan scored, Ramírez to second.3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Keith doubled to center, Greene scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 6Rogers singled to right, Torkelson scored, Meadows to third.2–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Thomas homered to left center (396 feet), Kwan scored, Fry scored and Ramírez scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Ramírez hit by pitch, Giménez scored, Fry to second, Kwan to third.1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Carpenter singled to right, Sweeney scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML DET +100 / CLE -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 50.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.7 – 2.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −1 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +2 Elo | CLE 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 7th of 3043–38 | Road vs home | 50–303rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 92–75 | 84–80 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–41 | 44–53 |
| Underdog | 63–34 | 40–27 |
| Overs–unders | 82–85 | 76–86–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 17–13 CLE in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 30.
- Oct 10CLE 5 @ DET 4PlayoffsPicked CLE 52%Hit
- Oct 9CLE 0 @ DET 3PlayoffsPicked CLE 51%Miss
- Oct 7DET 3 @ CLE 0PlayoffsPicked DET 53%Hit
- Oct 5DET 0 @ CLE 7PlayoffsPicked CLE 54%Hit
- Jul 30CLE 5 @ DET 0Picked CLE 55%Hit
- Jul 29CLE 8 @ DET 4Picked CLE 59%Hit
- Jul 25DET 3 @ CLE 0Picked CLE 58%Miss
- Jul 24DET 1 @ CLE 2Picked CLE 57%Hit