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New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast

Final/10NYY lead series 2-1

Away

Yankees

94-68

5–7

at

Home

Guardians

92-69

NYY 50%CLE 50%

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Progressive Field · TBS, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.

CLE75%50%75%NYYStart123456789Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Yankees
  • Aaron JudgeBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Clarke SchmidtPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Guardians
  • Kyle ManzardoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Matthew BoydPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K

Scoring summary

  • 10Fry homered to left center (399 feet), Bo Naylor scored.5–7
  • 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
  • 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
  • 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
  • 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
  • 9Noel homered to left (404 feet), Thomas scored.5–5
  • 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
  • 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
  • 9Torres hit sacrifice fly to center, Volpe scored, Verdugo to third.5–3
  • 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–3
  • 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
  • 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
  • 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
  • 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
  • 9Pitch 3 : Ball 35–3
  • 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
  • 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
  • 8Stanton homered to center (390 feet).4–3
  • 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
  • 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
  • 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
  • 8Pitch 4 : Ball 14–3
  • 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
  • 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
  • 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
  • 8Judge homered to right (356 feet), Soto scored.3–3
  • 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
  • 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
  • 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
  • 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
  • 6Giménez singled to center, Thomas scored.1–3
  • 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
  • 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
  • 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–3
  • 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
  • 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
  • 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
  • 3Manzardo homered to right (395 feet), Rocchio scored.1–2
  • 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
  • 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Guardians 50%

Toss-upHit
NYY 50%CLE 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
CLE 50%
ML NYY -110 / CLE -110
Pre-line forecast
CLE 50%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CLE 48%
Ratings vs. market
−1.6 pts
CLE: Elo 48.4%, market 50.0%
Fair odds
CLE -100
NYY -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NYY 3.3 – 3.3 CLE
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYYCLEWhy
Team rating15371514Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+5−1NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYY +11 EloNYY 51.6%
Market-implied ratingsNYY 50.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYY 50.3%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCLE 50.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians compared, with each team's league rank
NYYStatCLE
3rd of 305.0Runs scored4.414th of 30
9th of 304.1Runs allowed3.93rd of 30
2nd of 30+0.9Margin+0.510th of 30
13th of 305–5Last 105–513th of 30
1st of 3050–30Road vs home50–303rd of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

YankeesGuardians
1450150015501600league averageAprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYYCLE
Run line86–7885–82
Last 105–53–7
Favorite57–7345–53
Underdog29–540–29
Overs–unders90–73–178–87–2
Overs–unders, last 105–54–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NYY 10–4 CLE in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.