Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting1-4
- Luis SeverinoPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Muncy homered to right (378 feet).8–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 8Ohtani homered to right (397 feet), Smith scored and E. Hernández scored.7–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 6E. Hernández homered to left center (378 feet), Edman scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Edman hit sacrifice fly to center, T. Hernández scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Smith reached on infield single to shortstop, Muncy scored, T. Hernández to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 51%
- ML LAD -115 / NYM -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 52.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.8 – 3.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −18 | LAD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +20 Elo | LAD 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 5th of 3045–35 | Road vs home | 46–346th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–82 | 87–82 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 75–69 | 45–49 |
| Underdog | 11–13 | 42–33 |
| Overs–unders | 96–71–1 | 88–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 8–6 NYM in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.
- Oct 14NYM 7 @ LAD 3PlayoffsPicked LAD 58%Miss
- Oct 13NYM 0 @ LAD 9PlayoffsPicked LAD 60%Hit
- May 29LAD 10 @ NYM 3Picked LAD 52%Hit
- May 28LAD 3 @ NYM 0Picked LAD 53%Hit
- May 28LAD 5 @ NYM 2Picked LAD 64%Hit
- Apr 21NYM 0 @ LAD 10Picked LAD 69%Hit
- Apr 20NYM 6 @ LAD 4Picked LAD 62%Miss
- Apr 19NYM 9 @ LAD 4Picked LAD 64%Miss