San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting1-4
- Yu DarvishPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7T. Hernández homered to left (420 feet).0–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2E. Hernández homered to left center (428 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML SD +125 / LAD -150
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -135
- SD +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.4 – 4.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +4 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +36 Elo | LAD 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3047–33 | Road vs home | 52–282nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–81 | 84–81 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 40–60 | 73–68 |
| Underdog | 45–21 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders | 89–77–1 | 94–70–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 14–16 LAD in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 30.
- Oct 9LAD 8 @ SD 0PlayoffsPicked SD 55%Miss
- Oct 8LAD 5 @ SD 6PlayoffsPicked SD 58%Hit
- Oct 6SD 10 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 57%Miss
- Oct 5SD 5 @ LAD 7PlayoffsPicked LAD 55%Hit
- Sep 26SD 2 @ LAD 7Picked LAD 50%Hit
- Sep 25SD 3 @ LAD 4Picked LAD 57%Hit
- Sep 24SD 4 @ LAD 2Picked SD 51%Hit
- Jul 31LAD 1 @ SD 8Picked SD 54%Hit