Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Chris TaylorBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Landon KnackPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Sam HilliardBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Barnes scored on a balk, Ohtani to third on a balk.2–1
- 8Barnes scored on a balk, Ohtani to third on a balk.2–1
- 8Taylor homered to right center (396 feet).1–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Hilliard homered to right (476 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 58%
- ML LAD -155 / COL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 66.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -140
- COL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 6.1 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +1 | LAD: Anthony Banda: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +118 Elo | LAD 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.0 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 5th of 3044–35 | Road vs home | 37–4124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–79 | 77–80 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 72–66 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 9–13 | 74–70 |
| Overs–unders | 90–69–1 | 82–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 19–6 COL in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 25.