San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ohtani singled to center, Smith scored, Edman to third.3–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5Tatis Jr. homered to left center (448 feet).3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4Ohtani doubled to right, Lux scored, Rojas to third.2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Lux singled to center, Edman scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Cronenworth grounded out to second, Merrill scored, Bogaerts to second.2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Bogaerts singled to left, Machado scored, Merrill to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1T. Hernández singled to center, Ohtani scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML SD +120 / LAD -145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 52.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -130
- SD +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.5 – 4.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +1 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +18 Elo | LAD 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.82nd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3045–30 | Road vs home | 50–282nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–75 | 78–78 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 39–57 | 69–65 |
| Underdog | 41–18 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders | 82–73–1 | 87–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 12–12 LAD in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.