San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Enrique HernandezBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Landon KnackPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9E. Hernández singled to center, Smith scored, Edman to second.4–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 4Cronenworth doubled to left, Bogaerts scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 34–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 14–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Bogaerts singled to left, Profar scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Cronenworth homered to right (358 feet), Merrill scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Ohtani scored on error, Betts safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Bogaerts, Betts safe at second on error.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 51%
- ML SD -115 / LAD -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- SD: Elo 46.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -104
- LAD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −1 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Landon Knack: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +22 Elo | LAD 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3044–30 | Road vs home | 50–272nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–75 | 78–77 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 39–57 | 69–64 |
| Underdog | 40–18 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders | 82–72–1 | 87–67–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 11–12 LAD in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.