Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Enrique HernandezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Muncy doubled to right, Taylor scored and Lux scored, T. Hernández to third.13–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 113–2
- 9Lux singled to right, Pages scored, Taylor to second.11–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play11–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 311–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul11–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 211–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking11–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–2
- 9Taylor singled to right, E. Hernández scored, Pages to third.10–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–2
- 8Smith singled to right, Lux scored, Muncy to third.9–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 5T. Hernández homered to left center (429 feet), Ohtani scored and Lux scored.8–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 4Kiermaier singled to left, Smith scored, Kiermaier out stretching at second.5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Tovar homered to left center (429 feet).4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Betts scored.4–1
- 3Betts scored.4–1
- 2E. Hernández homered to center (430 feet), Smith scored and Edman scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 1McMahon hit sacrifice fly to right, Blackmon scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 68%
- ML LAD -240 / COL +200
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 64.8%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -212
- COL +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 6.6 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +18 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +106 Elo | LAD 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 69.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 6th of 3043–35 | Road vs home | 37–4024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–79 | 77–79 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 71–66 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 9–13 | 74–69 |
| Overs–unders | 89–69–1 | 81–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 18–6 COL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 24.