San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting3-4
- Joe MusgrovePitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pages homered to left (428 feet), E. Hernández scored.2–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 7Betts singled to right, Pages scored and Ohtani scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Ohtani singled to right, E. Hernández scored on error, Ohtani safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Tatis Jr., Pages safe at third on error.2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 7Smith homered to center (426 feet), Muncy scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 6Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to center, Profar scored, Machado to third.2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Arraez grounded out to first, D. Peralta scored, Higashioka to third.1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 50%
- ML SD -110 / LAD -110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 51.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -100
- SD -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −5 | SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +7 Elo | LAD 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.82nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3045–31 | Road vs home | 51–282nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–75 | 78–79 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 39–57 | 69–66 |
| Underdog | 42–18 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders | 82–74–1 | 87–69–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–10 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 12–13 LAD in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 25.